Data through Q4 2025 · Sources: SIPRI, UN, World Bank, NOAA, Eurostat

Global Risk Overview

Composite view of civilizational stress factors across technological, environmental, demographic, and social dimensions. Each index aggregates multiple underlying indicators normalized to a 0–100 severity scale.

Technological Risk Index
72
▲ +8 since 2015
Environmental Stress Index
78
▲ +12 since 2015
Demographic Pressure Index
65
▲ +5 since 2015
Social Fragmentation Index
69
▲ +14 since 2015
Composite Systemic Risk
71
▲ +10 since 2015

Composite Risk Indices Over Time

Aggregated from SIPRI, NOAA, UN, World Bank, Pew Research

Risk Domain Radar — 2025

Normalized composite scores by domain

Regional Risk Comparison

2025 composite scores by world region

Risk Acceleration (Rate of Change)

10-year annualized change in index values

Cross-Domain Correlation Matrix

Pearson r between risk indices, 1990–2025

Technological Risk

Tracking global military expenditure, nuclear arsenals, autonomous weapons development, and emerging dual-use technologies. Data from SIPRI, FAS, IISS, and national defense ministries.

Global Military Spending (2024)
$2.44T
▲ +6.8% YoY (real terms)
Global Nuclear Warheads
12,121
▼ from 70,300 peak (1986)
Countries with Military AI Programs
30+
▲ from ~6 in 2010
Active Armed Conflicts
56
▲ Highest since WWII (UCDP)

Global Military Expenditure (Constant 2022 USD)

Source: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database

Nuclear Warhead Inventories

Source: Federation of American Scientists / SIPRI

Military Spending by Region (% of Global)

Source: SIPRI 2024

Top 10 Military Spenders (2024)

Source: SIPRI, constant 2022 USD billions

Autonomous Weapons & Military AI Development Timeline

Source: IISS, CNAS, national defense publications

Active Armed Conflicts by Type

Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)

Environmental Stress

Monitoring atmospheric CO₂, temperature anomalies, pollution, and biodiversity loss. Data from NOAA, NASA GISS, WHO, IUCN, and the Global Carbon Project.

Atmospheric CO₂ (2025)
427 ppm
▲ +2.4 ppm/yr average
Global Temp. Anomaly (2024)
+1.45°C
▲ Above 1850–1900 baseline
Species at Risk of Extinction
44,000+
▲ 28% of assessed species (IUCN)
Air Pollution Deaths / Year
6.7M
— WHO Global Estimate

Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration (Mauna Loa)

Source: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

Global Temperature Anomaly (°C vs 1850–1900)

Source: NASA GISS / HadCRUT5

Global CO₂ Emissions by Region

Source: Global Carbon Project

Biodiversity: Living Planet Index

Source: WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report

Air Quality: PM2.5 by Region (μg/m³)

Source: WHO Global Ambient Air Quality Database

Ocean Health: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

Source: NOAA OISST

Demographic Change

Fertility decline, aging populations, migration flows, and urban demographic transitions. Data from UN Population Division, Eurostat, OECD, and national statistical offices. Demographic data on ethnic composition is drawn from official census sources where available.

Global Fertility Rate (2024)
2.25
▼ from 4.97 in 1960
International Migrants (2024)
~310M
▲ from 153M in 1990
Countries Below Replacement Fertility
110+
▲ from ~20 in 1970
Median Age, Europe (2025)
44.4 yrs
▲ from 34.0 in 1990

Total Fertility Rate by Region

Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024

International Migration Stock (Millions)

Source: UN DESA International Migration

Population Projections — Selected European Countries

Source: UN Population Division / Eurostat

Old-Age Dependency Ratio (65+ per 100 working-age)

Source: UN / World Bank

Foreign-Born Population Share — Major Cities

Source: Eurostat, OECD, national census data

Net Migration Rate — Selected Countries

Source: UN / World Bank (per 1,000 population)

Social Cohesion

Measuring institutional trust, political polarization, civil unrest, and indicators of social fragmentation. Data from Pew Research, Edelman Trust Barometer, V-Dem, ACLED, and national surveys.

Trust in Government (OECD Avg)
39%
▼ from 46% in 2006
Political Polarization Index
0.74
▲ Rising in 35 of 40 democracies
Protest Events (2024)
~28,000
▲ 3x the 2010 level (ACLED)
Democratic Backsliding
72 countries
▲ V-Dem autocratization wave

Institutional Trust Over Time (% Trust)

Source: Edelman Trust Barometer / Pew Research

Political Polarization — Selected Democracies

Source: V-Dem Political Polarization Index

Civil Unrest Events by Region

Source: ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data)

Liberal Democracy Index Trend

Source: V-Dem Institute

Income Inequality (Gini Coefficient)

Source: World Bank / OECD

Media Trust & Information Environment

Source: Reuters Institute Digital News Report

Systemic Future Pressures

Examining how technological, environmental, and demographic stressors converge to create compounding risks. This section integrates cross-domain indicators to identify potential cascading failure points in global systems.

Global Fragile States (FSI "Alert")
34
▲ from 28 in 2010
Climate Displacement Risk (by 2050)
216M
— World Bank Groundswell estimate
Global Debt-to-GDP
336%
▲ from 230% in 2008
Food Insecurity (Severe)
900M+
▲ FAO 2024 estimate

Convergence Timeline: Multi-Domain Risk

Composite projections from UN, IPCC, SIPRI

Fragile States Index — Trend

Source: Fund for Peace FSI

Global Debt Burden (% of GDP)

Source: IMF Global Debt Database / IIF

Food Insecurity & Water Stress Projections

Source: FAO / World Resources Institute

Scenario Matrix: Risk Convergence Pathways (2025–2075)

Illustrative scenario analysis drawing on IPCC SSPs, UN population variants, and SIPRI trend data